长江三角洲城市群综合承载力的时空分异研究

Global Factor Analysis and Spatial Differentiation Study on Comprehensive Carrying Capacity of Urban Agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta

城市群是复杂人工系统,承载力反映城市环境对人类活动的支撑能力和人类活动对城市环境的影响能力。从资源的供给与需求角度,选取12项代表性指标,采用时序全局因子分析的方法,对2000年、2008年长三角城市群16个城市的土地、水、交通和环境等单要素承载力进行评价;通过提取3个全局公因子,对城市群综合承载力的动态变化规律进行分析。结果表明:长三角城市群综合承载力总体趋向改善,除上海外的15城市综合承载力均有所提高;水资源和土地资源承载力是制约长三角城市群经济社会发展的关键因素;城市群城市综合承载力具有典型的分级特征。运用系统聚类方法将长三角城市群综合承载力指数划分为3个层次,依次表示城市综合承载力由低至高的3个空间梯度。采用变异系数对2000年和2008年城市群综合承载力指数的空间分异程度进行比较,结果表明,长三角城市综合承载力的空间差异显著并扩大,城市群表现为依赖人口、资源向核心城市聚集的规模型发展模式。

Urban agglomeration is an artificial complicated system.Its carrying capacity shows the supporting capability of urban environment for human activity and the influencing capability of human activity for urban environment.From the perspective of resources supply and demand such as land,water,traffic and environment,12 evaluating indicators of the urban comprehensive carrying capacity of the 16 cities in the Yangtze River Delta were selected.Data from 2000 and 2008 was applied and weighting method with timing global factor analysis was used.The results showed that the majority of the cities＇ comprehensive capacity increased,land carrying capacity and water carrying capacity decreased became the key factors affecting the economic and social development,urban comprehensive carrying capacities showed significant spatial differentiations.After hierarchical cluster analysis,urban comprehensive carrying capacities were divided into 3 grads from inferior to superior.Coefficient of Variation showed that the spatial differentiation was conspicuous and expanded.And urban agglomeration displaied a scalization development mode that changing from rely on population and resources to assemble to core cities.