中国入境旅游经济的集聚与分散的实证分析

Agglomeration and Dispersion of China's Inbound Tourism Economy:An Empirical Analysis

本文基于31个省(区、市)旅游外汇收入的面板数据,采用变差系数、Gini系数、Herfindahl指数、Theil指数研究了1996-2009年中国入境旅游经济的集聚与分散,并对影响因素进行了定量分析。结果发现:集聚是中国入境旅游经济的历史特征,分散是主流变化趋势;旅游业固定资产投资、对外开放和旅游资源水平在促进入境旅游经济分散化发展方面具有主导推动作用;而旅游业从业人员、第三产业比重和星级酒店水平阻碍了分散化趋势。基于此,提出促进中国入境旅游业均衡发展的建议。

This paper studies agglomeration and dispersion of China＇s inbound tourism economy with Variation coefficient,Gini coefficient,Herfindahl coefficient,Theil index,and quantitatively analyzes the influencing factors based on the panel data of inbound tourism receipts of 31 provinces during 1996-2009.The results indicate that agglomeration is the history characteristic and dispersion is the main trend for China＇s inbound tourism economy;the level of investment in fixed assets for the tourism industry,tourism resources,and openness plays the main role in dispersion;but the proportion of employed persons in the tourism industry,the proportion of the tertiary industry accounting for GDP,and star-hotel level hinder the dispersion trend.Based on this,it brings forward some suggestions to promote balanced development of inbound tourism economy among different provinces.