货币供应、通胀预期管理与物价调控手段

Money Supply,Inflation Expectations Management and Price Control Measures

基于VAR模型的物价波动成因的实证分析显示,1992年以来货币因素对CPI的贡献率为70.03%,货币始终是影响我国物价的主要因素;但2003年以来,影响物价的因素变得更为复杂,物价上涨主要由劳动力成本、通胀预期和货币因素共同拉动,其对CPI的贡献率分别为39.97%、26.73%和25.19%,输入性通胀因素对CPI的贡献率为8.11%。现阶段稳定物价水平不仅要注重控制货币供应,更应注重劳动生产率的提高和通胀预期的管理。

According to empirical analysis of the cause of price fluctuations based on the VAR model, since 1992, the contribution rate of monetary factors on the CPI is 70.03%, and money is always a major factor affecting China＇s price. But since 2003, the factors of influencing price have become more complicated. The contribution rates of labor cost, inflation expectation, monetary and imported factors to CPI are respectively 39.97%,26.73%,25.19% and a.11%. In order to keeping price stable, we should not only focus on controlling the money supply, but should focus on labor productivity and the management of inflation expectations.