基于H—P滤波方法的我国房地产市场波动同宏观经济波动关系研究

The Research on the Relation between the Real Estate Market Fluctuation and Our Country's Macroeconomic Fluctuation

本文第一部分对已有研究成果进行了介绍,同时也点出研究重点放在最近几年。文章第二部分研究发现在年度内变量波动也有规律,部分变量的波动尤为剧烈;在利用H—P滤波手段之后,随后采用格兰杰因果检验,发现M2RR与P、SCRR与GDPRR有相互的格兰杰因果关系,TREIRR对GDPRR只是间接影响。在最后一部分,笔者提出要保持房地产市场健康发展,长期上要注重经济结构调整,短期上要正确把握金融手段对房地产市场的作用。

At the first part,the article introduces the research achievement existed,and also points out the research emphasis mainly in the lastest few years.In the second part,the research finds that the variables＇ fluctuations form laws in annual,and parts of the variables＇ fluctuations are especially violent;through the method of H—P Filtering,and with making use of Granger Causing Test,the article finds that the M2RR and P,SCRR and GDPRR form Granger Causality relations each other,and TREIRR produces influence to GDPRR indirectly.In the last part,for keeping good condition in the real estate the author indicates that we should pay close attention to economic structure adjustment in long term,and grasp accurately the application with finance method to the real estate market in short term.