中国住房价格长期和短期波动的区域差异:原因与政策含义

The Regional Differences of Long and Short Term Fluctuation of China's Housing Prices

本文利用1999—2008年全国35个大中城市面板数据,通过面板数据模型和误差修正模型,讨论了区域住房价格长期及短期波动差异,并分析了区域住房价格波动差异的成因。实证结果发现,从长期趋势看,人口规模对东、西部地区影响较大,对中部地区影响不显著;人均可支配收入对中部地区住房价格影响最大;心理预期仅对东部住房价格波动有较大影响。从短期趋势看,购房者对各地区住房价格的预期不尽相同,东部为理性预期,而中西部表现为适应性预期;收入对东部住房价格短期波动影响不显著,对中部影响最显著。无论是住房价格的长期或短期波动,利率对各地区的影响均不大。从政策含义角度看,完善房地产市场结构有利于抑制住房价格,利率政策则不太有效。

This paper discusses the fluctuation difference of long and short term housing prices in different regions and analyzed the fators,which bases on the panel data model and error correction model,through the panel data in 35 cities from 1999 to 2008.The empirical results follows： From the long term trend,population size has a greater effect on the eastern and western regions,but not significant in central region;the effect of per disposable income on housing prices in central is the largest.psychological expectancy only has a significant effect on the eastern housing prices fluctuation.From the short term trend,buyers＇ expectancy of the region＇s housing prices varies,it＇s rational expectation in eastern zone,but adaptive one in central and western regions;the effect of income on housing prices in central is the largest,but not significant in eastern region;interest rate on the long and short term fluctuation housing prices in various regions have little effect.