淄博市及其邻近地区活断层地震危险性评价

Seismic Risk Assessment of Active Faults in Zibo City and Its Adjacent Area

本文是山东省防震减灾"十五"重点项目(SD10503)——淄博市活断层探测与地震危险性评价项目的一个子课题和山东省自然科学基金青年基金(Q97E1142)——郯庐断裂带强震孕育动力学模型及其数值模拟研究部分研究成果的总结。在分析研究地震地质、地球物理、断层综合地球物理探测、探槽开挖、断层活动性鉴定等技术手段获得的反映区域地震构造环境、深部构造背景、活动断裂长期滑动习性的定性和定量资料、历史与现代地震活动性和地球动力学资料的基础上,甄别出具有发生破坏性地震的活断层段。同时利用定性、定量和综合判定方法,评价了淄博市及其邻近地区主要断层的地震危险性。本项研究成果为淄博市城区地震小区划、震害预测和断层危害性评价提供了基础依据。

Based on the analysis and research of the qualitative and quantitative data of seismic structure environment,depth structure background and active faults that were detected from seismic-geology,geophysical survey,trenching exploration and activity analysis,we have identified the active fault segments which have great potential disastrous earthquake risk in Zibo city and its adjacent area.By using qualitative,quantitative and synthetic methods,we presented the scientific basis for seismic micro-division,seismic disaster forecasting and fault hazard assessment of Zibo city in this paper.