上海碳排放强度结构分解分析

Structure Decomposition on Carbon Emission Intensity of Shanghai

本文首次在省市级层面研究2002年至2007年上海碳排放强度下降因素,利用结构分解分析法将25个分行业综合成最终需求总量(GDP)、最终需求结构、中间生产碳排放系数、最终需求碳排放系数以及完全需求系数5个因素,结果发现最关键因素是最终需求结构,其变动会引起碳排放强度增长;GDP增长不会降低上海碳排放强度,因此为使得碳排放强度下降,需要鼓励低碳服务业和高科技产品的消费比例;中间生产过程的碳排放系数变动影响远比生活消耗的碳排放系数变动的影响较大,更应重视产业结构调整以改变能源消耗结构;第二产业中完全需要系数高的行业更需提高效率以降低碳排放强度的潜力。

In this paper, factors of carbon emission intensity reduction in Shanghai from 2002 to 2007 were investigated. Using structural decomposition analysis, changes in carbon emission intensity of 25 industries were systematically generalized into 5 factors, i.e., final demand （GDP） composition, final demand in structure, carbon emission coefficients during intermediate production, carbon emission coefficient at the procedure of final demand, and full demand coefficient. Values of influences of the five factors on carbon emission intensity reduction and the contributions of these factors to carbon emission intensity reduction were calculated. It was found that final demand in structure, namely the final demand for products or services of different kinds, is the most important factor for reducing the carbon emission intensity. This factor has the largest influence value of 0.733%, which means that carbon emission intensity reduces to be 73.3% of the base-year level due to change in final demand in structure alone, and the largest contribution rate of 280%, which means that the decreased amount of carbon emission intensity by final demand in structure is 280% of carbon emission intensity reduction by all five factors. The influence value of final demand composition, namely household consumption, government consumption, investment, and net export, is 1.223%, which means that carbon emission intensity increases to be 122.3% of the base-year level due to change in final demand composition alone, and the contribution rate of final demand is-243%, which means that the increased amount of carbon emission intensity by final demand is 243% of the decrease of carbon emission intensity by all factors. Different from other studies, the growth of GDP will not definitely reduce the carbon emission intensity of Shanghai. It will, however, reduce the carbon emission intensity through changing the final demand for products of different types, but increase the carbon emission intensity through changing composition of GDE It is necessary to enlarge the proportion of consumption of service and high technology products with low carbon emission coefficients so as to reduce the carbon emission intensity. In addition, the influence value of change in carbon emission coefficients during intermediate production is larger than that of carbon emission coefficients during the household consumption, so it is necessary to pay more attention to the industrial structure adjustment aimed at changing the structure of energy consumption. Last but not least, as to the secondary industry with a high full demand coefficient, their efficiency should be improved for potential of carbon emission intensity reduction.