基于集对分析理论的洪水灾情综合评估方法

A comprehensive method for evaluation of flood disasters based on set-pair analysis theory

洪水灾情的评价工作对洪水灾害的分类管理具有重要的指导意义。为了提高洪水灾情评估的准确性,应用集对分析理论和方法,以受灾面积、受灾人口数、破坏房屋面积和经济损失作为评价因子,建立了灾情评估的集对分析模型,提出了基于集对分析理论的洪水灾情综合评估方法。集对分析是在一定的问题背景下,对集对中2个集合的确定性与不确定性以及确定性与不确定性的相互作用所进行的一种系统和数学分析,采用集对分析理论的洪水灾情综合评估方法得出的评价结果同灰色关联法、灰色聚类法、灰色模糊综合法、PCNN网络模型的评价结果进行了比较,表明其用于洪水灾情综合评价具有科学性和有效性。

The evaluation of flood disasters is of important guiding significance to the classified management of flood disasters.In order to enhance the accuracy of assessment,a comprehensive method for evaluation of flood disasters,which took the disaster area,the affected population,the destruction area of housing and the economic loss as evaluation factors,was established based on Set Pair Analysis（SPA） theory.This method was construeted by using sample values compared with the value of standard grade.Set pair analysis is a system and mathematical analysis on the certainty and uncertainty and the interaction between them of two sets of integrating in certain problem background.By sing this model,the situation of evaluation of flood disasters can be aceurately identified.The evaluation results were compared with grey relation method,grey clustering method,grey fuzzy synthesis,PCNN network model.This method was verified clearly through the practical example,and the rationality and validity were demonstrated.