新化工装置风险评价方法的研究

Study on the methods of risk assessment for new chemical facilities

回顾了中国与欧美化工新装置风险评价技术的发展,分析了中国与欧美风险评价的异同、中国风险评价存在的问题。结合作者的实践,介绍与讨论了新化工装置设立安全评价阶段的风险评价方法,推荐和介绍了物理化学方法作为评价方法应用的实例。专家分析评议法、物理化学方法、评价软件模拟等评价方法的综合使用,尽可能地做到根据经验、专业知识从已建装置分析拟建装置、利用物化方法较系统地分析装置反应过程、利用评价软件直观地模拟风险,各种评价方法互补、定性与定量互补,从而较系统、完整地完成化工新装置的安全评价工作,以减少装置的安全隐患,有助于使装置顺利地投入运行。

In this paper the developing of risk assessment technique in China,Europe and American were reviewed,and the differences between Europe,American and China was analyzed,as well as the problems of risk assessment in China.The methods of hazard risk assessment for new chemical facilities and process plant in the stage of safety assessment prior to start were introduced and discussed considering the practice of authors.The utilization of physical chemistry as a method of risk assessment was proposed and introduced,and some examples were given.To study the hazards of new facilities more systematically and integrally,a series of methods could be used synthetically,such as the analysis and assessment by experts,method of physical chemistry and assessment software.For this purpose,technicians should analyse new process plant based on the experience and special knowledge from in-severce units,analyse chemical reaction process with method of physical chemistry logically,and simulate the scenarios with assessment software apparently. In this way,various kinds of assessment methods could supplement each other,and qualitative methods and quantitative methods could also complement mutually.This work could decrease the potential hazards of the new chemical facilities and contribute to the successful start-up of the new facilities.