巨灾保险需求不足:理论分析与政策建议

随着世界范围内的巨灾频发,巨灾保险作为一种有效地风险规避手段已经逐步为巨灾风险转移的理论热点。作为巨灾保险市场重要组成的巨灾保险需求问题,一方面,其不足是困绕与制约巨灾保险制度及其运行的一大难题,另一方面,对其进行分析又是研究巨灾保险不可回避的领域与课题。本文以自然灾害导致的巨灾风险与保险为研究对象,从个体不确定性下的选择出发,运用规范性模型和描述型模型的基本思路,分别探讨了期望值、期望效用理论及行为经济学等理论作为分析工具的优势与不足,最后提出这些理论与工具为我们开展巨灾保险及其需求研究的方法论启示,强调了我国巨灾保险制度在制度"硬件"完善过程中重视相应公众认知这一"软件"提升的重要性。

With the frequently occurred catastrophe events around the world, catastrophe insurance, which is one of the most efficient risk - mitigation methods, is increasingly being focused. As an important com- ponent of the catastrophe insurance market, the deficiencies of demands for catastrophe insurance, on the one hand, are major problems that had plagued and constrained the operation of the catastrophe insurance system ; on the other hand, its analysis is one of the subjects that can not be avoided for the catastrophe insurance research. This paper examined the natural hazards caused catastrophe risk and its insurance. From the perspective of indi- vidual＇ s choice behavior, using the normative model and descriptive model as the basic ideas, it made some dis- cussion about the expected theory and expected utility theory and some other non -expected analysis techniques to obtain inspirations for analyzing methodology of demands for catastrophe insurance, and finally concludes with the importance of improving public cognition.