中国对东盟畜产品出口的影响因素与潜力分析——基于引力模型的实证研究

An Empirical Analysis of Livestock Export Potential and Determinants From China to ASEAN——Based on Gravity Model

本文利用东盟十国1992-2008年的面板数据,建立中国对东盟畜产品出口的引力模型,对中国对其畜产品出口的影响因素和出口潜力进行了实证研究。研究显示:东盟各国的经济规模、中国畜牧业生产总值、中国与东盟各国的空间距离和APEC这些因素对中国对东盟畜产品出口的影响显著。同时,本文根据该引力模型的模拟值,模拟了2008年中国对东盟各国畜产品出口的贸易潜力,潜力指数显示我国出口到东盟的畜产品总体呈现出"贸易不足"的现象,中国对东盟畜产品出口的整体出口潜力较大。

This paper analyses livestock export potential model which using 1992-2008 panel data. The result shows and determinants from china to ASEAN, based on gravity some determinants influent china＇ s livestock export to ASEAN. These determinants include economic scale of ASEAN, production of livestock in China, distance of these countries and APEC. Meanwhile, the paper simulates China＇ s livestock export trade potential to ASEAN under the simulated value of gravity model in 2008. The potential index shows a ＂lack of trade＂ phenomenon.