电力系统短期负荷预测方法与预测精度综述

Review of the Short-term Load Forecasting Methods and the Accurate Prediction of Power System

短期负荷预测是电力系统调度运营部门一项重要的基础工作,预测精度的高低直接影响到电网运行的安全性、经济性以及电能质量。特别是随着我国电力市场的不断完善和发展,短期负荷预测发挥的作用日趋重要。本文首先对影响电力系统负荷预测精度的因素进行了分析和总结,然后对目前负荷预测方法中的智能预测方法和新方法进行了阐述和探讨,最后提出了提高负荷预测精度的几项措施,并对其未来发展方向进行了展望。

Short-term load forecasting is an important foundation work for the scheduling operation department of power system.The forecasting accuracy directly affects the operation of the safety, economy and power quality. Especially along with the power market＇s developing and perfecting in China, the function of the short-term load forecasting is becoming more and more important. This paper first analyzes and summarizes the accurate factors of forecasting, and then introduces some intelligent forecasting methods and new methods, finally puts forward some measures about improving load forecasting accuracy and development direction in the future.