财政科技投入对经济贡献的动态综合估计

Study on contribution to economy of the government science and technology input

采用状态空间模型进行变系数估计,同时采用向量自回归模型、脉冲响应函数、方差分解分析财政科技投入与经济的动态交互效应。状态空间模型的研究结果表明,每年财政科技投入对经济贡献的弹性系数处于不稳定的正负波动中,绝对值较小。脉冲响应函数和方差分解的结果表明,科技投入与经济增长之间的互动关系要弱于劳动力与经济增长的关系,科技投入与资本的互动关系要强于科技投入与劳动力的互动关系。状态回归模型、脉冲响应函数、方差分解的结果是可以互相验证和互相补充的。

This paper analyzes this relationship based on state space model , impuls response function and variance decomposition. The results show the elasticity coefficient of government science and technology input is lower and is in non - steady operation state. The Interaction relationship of science and technology input is lower than that of labor. The Interaction relationship of invest is higher than that of labor. All of these methods＇ result are integrated, and complement and verify each other.