苏禽乌骨鸡累计产蛋数曲线拟合和比较分析

Comparative Analysis and Fitting of Egg Production Curves of Suqin Silkies

运用Logistic、Gompertz和Bertallanffy 3种被广泛采用的非线性生长模型,对苏禽乌骨鸡的累计产蛋数进行拟合分析。结果表明,3种模型都能很好地对其累计产蛋数进行拟合,拟合度(R2)都在0.99以上,尤其以Bertallanffy模型对苏禽乌骨鸡的累计产蛋数拟合效果最佳,其拟合的拐点周龄和拐点产蛋数更为准确;进一步分析Bertallanffy模型拟合参数,发现苏禽乌骨鸡的极限产蛋数为199.14个,拐点产蛋数为60个,产蛋拐点在产蛋后3.83周,与实际相当,在生产中可以运用该模型对苏禽乌骨鸡的累计产蛋数进行估计与预测。

The egg production curve of Suqin Silkies fed from 160 to 400 days was analyzed and fitted with three kinds of non-linear models（Gompertz,Logistic,Bertalanffy）.The results showed that the egg production curves were appropriately fitted with all the three models.The values of R2 were higher than 0.99 and the Bertalanffy model represented the best fitness on predicting egg production and inflection time.Analysis of the fitting parameters of the Bertalanffy showed that the inflection egg production of Suqin Silkies was 60,and the maximum egg production was 199.14.This indicated that the Bertalanffy model could be used for predicting egg production of Suqin Silkies.