中国不可再生能源消耗压力驱动与强度分解

Driving Forces of Consumption Pressure and Intensity Decomposition of Non-renewable Energy Resources of China

随着煤炭、石油、天然气等不可再生能源的掠夺式开采的日益严重,中国不可再生能源供需缺口日渐放大,来自于经济增长和消耗强度的冲击使得中国不可再生能源消耗压力逐年增大。在对不可再生能源供需缺口以及消耗构成分析的基础上,运用IPAT方程、LMDI分解法,对中国不可再生能源消耗压力的驱动因素进行实证分析,针对作为主要驱动因素的不可再生能源消耗强度,运用费雪指数分解法进行二次结构、效率效应分解,并就分析结果作出具体剖析。研究结论如下:①中国不可再生能源消耗压力呈现"谷峰交替"型变动趋势,消耗压力的增加主要源于经济因素的驱动,消耗压力的减弱主要源于消耗强度的抑制性驱动作用;②结构效应指数对不可再生能源消耗强度的变动发挥主要影响作用,产业结构的低碳化调整会促进工业部门内部消耗强度的降低,从而达到拉动不可再生能源整体消耗强度降低的目标。

Along with the increasingly serious predatory mining of the coal, oil, and natural gas, the supply-demand gap of China is increasingly enlarged. Meanwhile the consumption pressure imposed by economic growth and intensity impact is increasing year by year. Based on analysis of supply-demand gap and consumption constitution, this paper makes empirical analysis of driving force of consumption pressure of China＇ s non-renewable energy resources by means of IPAT identity and LMDI. Then in the light of the main driving force namely consumption intensity, this paper makes secondary decomposition of structure and efficiency effect by means of Fisher index. The results are as follows： on the one hand, the consumption pressure of China presents ＂trough-peak alternation＂ changing trend, the increase of pressure comes from the driving force of economic factor, and the decrease of that comes from inhibitory driving effect of consumption intensity; on the other hand, structural effect index imposes the main impact on consumption intensity, thus, the low-carbonization adjustment of industrial structure will promote the intensity decrease of internal consumption of industrial department in order to achieve the target of decrease of overall intensity.