耕地集约利用影响因素的协整分析

Co-integration Analysis on Driving Factors of Intensive Cultivated Land Use Based on Perspective of Farmers:A Case Study of Hubei Province

耕地利用的集约度实质上是农户在其所面临的各种经济和制度环境约束条件下,所采取的不同耕种行为的直接结果和体现。本文试借助分析影响农户耕种行为的相关因素来探讨其对耕地集约利用的影响。利用Eviews 6.0统计软件,综合应用协整理论和误差修正模型,以湖北省为例,剖析耕地集约利用与其影响因素的长期均衡关系和短期波动效应。研究表明:在长期,户均农业劳动力人数、农业比较收入和耕地的产权保障对耕地利用的集约度存在正向影响,其增加1个百分点,将导致耕地利用的集约度分别提高0.166、0.430和0.035个百分点;农民家庭人均农业生产支出和农业生产资料价格指数对耕地利用的集约度存在负向影响,其增加1个百分点,将导致耕地利用的集约度分别下降0.004和0.008个百分点。而在短期,各影响因素对耕地利用集约度的作用方向相同而作用力大小不同。户均农业劳动力人数和农业比较收入对耕地集约利用的作用程度在短期与在长期是相似的;但耕地的产权保障和农业生产成本的变化对耕地集约利用的影响却更多体现在长期。因此,立足于稳定产权和降低农业生产成本的农业政策导向更有利于在长期保护耕地,提高耕地资源的配置和利用效率。

Actually, the intensive degree of cultivated land use is the direct result of farmer＇s different farming practices which are taken in different economic and institutional environment. So, this paper tries to analyze the effects of those factors influencing farming households＇ farming practices on intensive cultivated land use. Taking Hubei Province as an example, by using co-integration theory and error correction model, the paper analyzes both the long-term equilibrium and the short-term fluctuation relationships between intensive cultivated laud use and its influencing factors. The results show that： in the long run, the average number of one household＇s agricultural labor, agricultural comparative income and cultivated land property fights security have positive influences on intensive cultivated land use. When each of these factors increase 1% percentage point, the intensive degrees of cultivated land use will respectively increase 0. 166%, 0. 430% and 0. 035% percentage points. Moreover, the peasant family＇s per capita agricultural production expenditure and the price indices of agricultural means of production have negative impacts on intensive cultivated land use. When each of these factors increases 1% percentage point, the intensive degrees of cultivated land use will respectively decrease 0. 004% and O. 008%. In the short term, all factors mentioned above have the same influence direction but different influence sizes on intensive cnhivated land use. Furthermore, the short-term and long-term effects of the average number of one household＇s agricultural labor and agricultural comparative income on intensive cultivated land use are similar. However, the long-term effects of cultivated land property rights security and agricultural production costs on intensive cultivated land use are more evident. Therefore, the agricuhural policy guidance emphasizing stable property rights and reducing agricultural production costs is more conducive to protecting cultivated land and enhancing the allocation and utilization efficiency of cultivated land in the long term.