摄政王载沣驱袁事件再研究

Re-Examination of Prince Regent Zai Feng's Expulsion of Yuan Shikai

摄政王载沣驱袁事件,既是清廷内部的一场权力斗争,同时也夹杂着复杂的国际因素,与当时中美日三国外交存在十分微妙的关系,尤其与袁世凯的联美制日外交的失败直接有关。在这场政治权力斗争中,载沣之所以没有处死袁世凯,固然由于载沣本人性格优柔寡断、缺乏政治斗争经验,以及慑于袁世凯的北洋势力,但同时与列强尤其是美国的强力干预有着密切关系。而就几个主要列强来说,它们对载沣驱袁的态度和反应并不一致。其中,因为袁世凯的联美制日外交妨碍了日本对中国东三省的侵略,日本方面对袁世凯遭罢黜实际上持欢迎和支持态度,极不愿意看到袁氏复出;而美国政府由于担心清末新政改革政策发生逆转,同时也为了抵制日本对清政府的控制及与日本争夺中国东三省的控制权,坚决反对载沣罢黜袁世凯,从一开始就期待袁氏尽快复出。在载沣驱袁权力斗争的历史背后,同时也浮现出日、美两国较量的影子。

Prince Regent Zai Feng's Expulsion of Yuan Shikai was not only a power struggle within the Qing court,it was also mingled with complicated international factors.It had a subtle relationship with the diplomacy of China,the USA and Japan,and was directly related to the failure of Yuan Shikai's diplomatic policy of joining with the USA to contain Japan.Why did Zai Feng not execute Yuan Shikai in the political struggle? Certainly,Zai Feng's irresolute and hesitant character played a role,as did his lack of experience in political struggle and his fear of Yuan Shikai's Beiyang forces.At the same time,Zai Feng was influenced by strong interventions by foreign powers,and by the USA in particular.However,several of the major powers held different positions with respect to the political struggle and had different reactions to Zai Feng's expulsion of Yuan Shikai.Because Yuan Shikai's diplomatic policy of joining with the USA to contain Japan had impeded Japan's invasion of China's three northeast provinces,Japan actually welcomed and supported Yuan Shikai's downfall and was extremely unwilling to see him return to power.As for the USA,it feared a reversal of the late Qing New Policies,and wanted to undermine Japan's control of the Qing government and compete with Japan over control of Northeast China.So the USA resolutely objected to Zai Feng's expulsion of Yuan Shikai and hoped from the start that Yuan would eventually return.Behind the power struggle of Zai Feng's expulsion of Yuan Shikai,we can also see the traces of a confrontation between Japan and the USA.