工资粘性、经济波动与货币政策模拟——基于DSGE模型的分析

Wage Stickiness,Economic Fluctuation and Monetary Policy Simulation in China Based on a DSGE Analysis

本文在BGG模型的基础上,引入了工资粘性,使之成为综合考虑价格粘性、金融加速器效应以及工资粘性的DSGE模型,我们模拟并比较了中国不同货币政策的影响。贝叶斯估计结果验证了中国工资粘性的存在,说明中国劳动力市场的配置尚存在改善的余地。货币政策模拟结果显示,价格型货币政策效应较强但持续期较短,而数量型货币政策效应较为温和但影响相对持久,央行需注重价格型货币政策与数量型货币政策的合理搭配与使用。

This paper builds a DSGE model by introducing wage stickiness based on BGG model which reflects both price stickiness and financial accelerator effect. Bayesian estimation suggests that the wage stickiness and the labor market friction exist in China. Labor market could be improved substantially. Monetary policy simulation shows that persistence term of price type monetary policy is shor- ter but economic response is stronger than that of quantity type monetary policy in China.