人民币汇率增加弹性和参考一篮子货币汇率形成机制研究

Studies on Increasing RMB Exchange Rate Flexibility and RMB Exchange Rate Formation Mechanism with Reference to a Basket of Currencies

在央行货币政策目标下,可以确定最优汇率水平及汇率水平的调整。我国外汇体制改革要建立以市场供求为基础的,参考一篮子货币的有管理的浮动汇率制度,央行的汇率目标应由人民币对美元稳定转变为参考人民币有效汇率目标,确保人民币币值的总体水平稳定。实际上,参考篮子货币,人民币对美元汇率的弹性将显著增加。央行应逐步放宽人民币对美元和非美元货币的波动幅度,人民币汇率最终将由市场供求来决定,发挥汇率配置资源的基础作用。

Under the monetary policy goal of the central bank, the optimal ex- change rate level and adjustment process can be determined. The target of China＇s foreign exchange system reform is to establish the managed floating exchange rate system on the basis of market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies. The exchange rate target of the central bank should be transferred from pegging to US Dollar to referring to RMB effective exchange rate, ensuring the overall currency level stability of RMB. In fact, RMB exchange rate flexibility will increase remarkably against US Dollar with reference to a basket of currencies. The central bank should gradually relax RMB exchange rate fluctuation range against US Dollar and non-dollar currencies. RMB exchange rate will be finally determined by market supply and demand, and will play an important role on the allocation of resources.