中国碳减排的技术路径及政策建议——基于经典估计贝叶斯平均(BACE)法的实证研究

Technical Path and Policy Proposals for China's Carbon Emission Reduction:An Empirical Study Based on the BACE Method

在低碳经济已经成为时代主题的背景下,寻求低碳化发展路径,保持经济持续增长的同时实现碳减目标已成为当前的研究热点。由于经济系统的开放性及碳排放动力机制的复杂性,参数的选取会引致研究结果的不同。在充分考虑后验概率的基础上,基于1995-2009年的面板数据和扩展后的STRIPAT模型,运用经典估计贝叶斯平均(BACE)法,对中国碳排放强度的影响因素进行了实证分析,研究结果表明:能源强度、一次能源结构、经济发展规模和城市化发展水平等四个因素对其有较强并且稳健的影响力;若非采取更为有效的措施,中国将无法如期实现碳减目标。

Under the background of low-carbon economy as the theme of the times, it has become a research hotspot to seek a low-carbon development path and to reduce the carbon emissions while maintaining sustained economic growth. Due to the openness of the economic system and the complexity of the dynamic mechanism of carbon emissions, different parameter selections will lead to different results. On the basis of careful considerations of the posterior probability, based on the panel data 1995～2009 and the expanded STRIPAR Model, this study makes use of the BACE method to conduct an empirical analysis of the affecting factors of the carbon emission intensity in China. The results show that： （1） The four elements of resource intensity, the structure of primary energy consumption, the economic development scale and the urbanization level provide a strong and stable influence on it; （2） China will not be able to achieve the promised aim on carbon emission reduction on schedule, unless more effective measures are taken.