落叶松毛虫发生与气象因子的关系及其发生面积预报

Meteorological Conditions and Area Forecast for Occurrence of Dendrolimus superans in Inner Mongolia

根据内蒙古大兴安岭林区落叶松毛虫(Dendrolimus superans)发生与气象条件的相互关系,分析了气温、降水对松毛虫幼虫休眠越冬和上树及化蛹的影响,建立了越冬幼虫存活率的估算模型及发生面积预测模型。预测的松毛虫发生面积70%年份准确率达到95%以上,90%年份准确率达到90%以上。可以利用该模型进行松毛虫发生面积的等级预报。

Effects of air temperature and precipitation on dormancy, overwintering, treeing and pupation of Dendrolimus superans larvae were analyzed according to the relationships between meteorological conditions and occurrence of D. superans in Daxing＇ aiding forest regions of Inner Mongolia. An estimation model of survival rate of overwintered larvae and a predic- tion model of occurrence area were both created. The forecast accuracy rate of occurrence area of D. superans reached over 95 percent for 70 percent of occurring years, and it was 90 percent for 90 percent of occurring years. The model can be applied to the prediction of occurrence area.