摘要
利用对数平均权重分解法(LMDI)构建了电力生产CO_2排放变化影响因素的分解模型,并利用1985—2009年中国能源平衡表中的数据测算出电力生产CO_2排放量。在此基础上,将该CO_2排放量变化分解为收入效应、电力生产强度效应、电力生产结构效应、人口效应和发电煤耗效应。以1985年为基期并以我国国民经济和社会发展的五年规划为分解区间对这些影响因素进行分解分析.考察各种影响因素变动的背后原因。结合实证分析,给出相应的政策建议。
A factor decomposition model of CO2 emission changes in electricity production was built based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index （LMDI） decomposition method. The CO2 emission by electricity production was estimated by using the information from the report of energy balance data in China from 1985 to 2009. Based on the estimation, the changes in CO2 emission by electricity production were decomposed into five factors： income effect, electricity generation intensity, electricity generation structure, population and coal consumption rate. The decomposition analysis of the changes was conducted within the period of several five-year plans for China national economic and social development, taking the year of 1985 as the base year. The reasons behind these change factors were analyzed. Finally, the corresponding policy recommendations were given.
出处
《中国电力》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第11期39-42,共4页
Electric Power
基金
上海市教委科技创新工程资助项目(11YS198)
