概率分布模型的飞机战备完好率评估与预测

Assessment and Prediction of Aircraft Readiness Rates Based on Probability Distribution Model

飞机战备完好率是军用飞机战斗力的重要体现。在分析目前部队常用的飞机战备完好率算法缺陷的基础上,建立了基于概率分布的飞机战备完好率计算模型,该模型体现了飞机任务可靠性、维修性与战备完好性之间的关系。以某型飞机为例,通过分析飞机任务可靠度,利用飞机可靠性、维修性、保障性及作战训练任务的历史统计数据,依据概率分布模型对飞机的战备完好率进行了计算,获得了更为准确的评估结果,可用于具体型号在使用中的战备完好率的评估和预测。

Aircraft readiness rate is an important manifestation of battle effectiveness for the aircraft.Based on analyzing the defect of arithmetic of aircraft readiness rate usually used in army at present,this article has established the aircraft readiness rate model based on probability distribution model,this model has revealed the relation of the mission reliability,maintainability and aircraft readiness rate.Taking a certain type of aircraft for example,this article has calculated the aircraft readiness rate of the aircraft basing on probability distribution model through analyzing the arithmetic of the mission reliability and utilizing reliability,maintainability,supportability and statistical data occurred during the implementation of the mission,the result of which is more accurate.It can be used to assess and predict readiness rate of specific models in use.