导弹贮存寿命预估的组合模型

Research on Life Forecast Method of Missile Based on Combinatorial Model

在分析比较了几种寿命预估方法优缺点的基础上,针对单一预估方法在解决实际问题中所暴露的局限性,优选了GM-BPNN组合预估模型。该组合模型既利用了灰色预估理论具有所需要的样本数据少、原理简单、运算方便、短期预估精度高、可检验等优点,也发挥了神经网络并行计算、容错能力强、自适应能力强等优点。最后利用该组合模型对弹上某设备寿命进行了预估,取得了较好的预测效果。

On the foundation of analyzing and comparing the strongpoint and disadvantages of the life prediction methods,aim at the localization of the single method,choose the GM-BPNN combinatorial prediction model to resolve the question.The combination prediction model colligates the advantages of the gray theory and nerve net.At last,use this combination prediction to predict the life of the equipment of the missile,and get a favorable conclusion.