房价波动、货币政策工具的选择与宏观经济稳定:理论与实证

House Price Volatility,the Selection of Monetary Policy Instruments and the Stability of Macro-economy:Theory and Empirical Evidence

本文采用基于DSGE模型的模拟分析和基于VAR-GARCH(1,1)-ABEKK模型的溢出效应检验发现,在运用货币政策调控房地产市场时应以数量型工具为主,同时,由于数量型工具调控下房地产市场波动可能对宏观经济产生较大的冲击效应,使得宏观调控不能忽视价格型工具的作用。还发现,就价格型工具而言,以同业拆借利率为代表的市场化利率对房地产市场的影响大于管制利率,就数量型工具而言,以货币供给量为中介还是以信贷规模为中介无显著差异。此外,在非对称效应方面,数量型工具的影响显著强于价格型调控。可以预见的是,随着利率市场化的推进,市场化利率调控的影响会加深,应综合使用两种货币政策工具,加大利率工具的使用力度,增强房地产市场对利率敏感度。

This paper applies the simulation method on the basis of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model with house sector and the test of spillover effect based on VAR GARCH(1,1)-ABEKK Model to analyze the relationship between monetary policy and house price.The results show that when monetary policy regulates and controls house market,the central bank should focus on quantity instrument of monetary policy.Meanwhile,the role of price instrument of monetary policy should not be ignored because quantity instrument may increase the effect of price on macro-economy.As to price instrument of monetary policy,the liberalized interest rate has bigger influence on house market than regulated interest rate,when it comes to quantity instrument of monetary policy,money supply is the same as credit scale;for asymmetry effect of monetary policy,the effect of quantity instrument on house price is bigger than that of price instrument.It is predictable that during the process of the interest rate liberalization,the effect of the liberalized interest rate will increase and the two instruments should be comprehensively employed.