家庭生命周期对农村劳动力回流的影响分析——基于福建农村的调查问卷

The Impact Analysis of Family Life Cycle on Rural Labor Return——Based on the Survey of Fujian Rural Area

农村劳动力回流一直是影响我国城市化进程和经济可持续发展的一个重要因素,在理论上,诸多学者都对农村劳动力回流进行过富有价值的研究。本文基于2007年福建农村的调查问卷资料,运用多元有序Logit模型,从家庭生命周期这一全新的角度对农村劳动力回流进行了实证分析。分析结果显示,家庭生命周期对农村劳动力回流具有显著的影响,其中,成熟的核心家庭劳动力回流的意愿最强,年轻夫妇家庭劳动力回流的意愿最弱;在家庭生命周期的不同阶段,既有共同的影响因素,也存在差异化的影响因素。基于此,在加强农村劳动力流动管理以及制定相应的就业政策时,一方面要针对家庭生命周期不同阶段劳动力回流的共同影响因素,采取具有普遍意义的政策措施;另一方面,也要针对家庭生命周期不同阶段劳动力流动的特点以及所受制约因素的不同,对症下药,全面考虑。

In China,the problem of rural labor return is always an important influence factor during the process of urbanization and economic sustainable development.In academic,many scholars have made lots of researches on it.Based on the 2007 survey data of Fujian rural area and with multiple order Logit model,this research has an empirical analysis on the influence of family life cycle on rural labor return from a new perspective.The empirical analysis results reveal that family life cycle has a significant influence on rural labor return.The willingness of labor return in mature nuclear families is the strongest,and that of young families is the weakest.At the different stages of family life cycle,there are some common and differential influence factors.Based on the research findings,we should make more attention to two aspects when we manage the flows of rural labor and make policies on employment.On the one hand,we should adopt some universal measurements according to the common factors at the different stage of family life cycle;on the other hand,we should also make differential measurements to solve the problems of rural labor return according to the characteristics of the different stages of family life cycle.