“十一五”中国经济的低碳转型

China's Low Carbon Development Under the Eleventh Five Year Plan

"十一五"期间,中国的低碳发展取得了显著进展。此前能源强度和碳排放强度上升趋势得到有效逆转并大幅下降。电力和制造业是拉动能效上升和碳强度下降的主要部门;建筑部门内单位建筑面积能耗和CO2排放有所上升,但增速较"十五"而言明显放缓;交通部门内,各种运输方式的单位周转量能耗均有所下降,但高能耗交通模式高,部门总能耗和碳排放量上升明显;农业部门的能源消耗总量略有下降,单位增加值能耗下降明显;大规模造林大幅度提高了林业的碳吸收能力,使林业部门成为中国低碳发展的重要支柱。多项节能和可再生能源政策的出台及有效实施,为中国长远的低碳发展奠定了初步但实在的技术基础、物质基础和制度基础。作为一个发展中国家,中国的低碳发展呈现出碳排放总量上升、强度下降的基本特征。强有力的行政措施,使中国的低碳发展在短时间内取得了明显进展。由于政策手段单一,"十一五"期间政策实施尽管有效但成本很高,这也是"十二五"低碳发展政策制定与实施中应着力解决的重点问题。

China achieved major progress in low carbon development during the period of the Eleventh Five Year Plan （2006 -2010）. The increasing trend of energy intensity and carbon intensity of the economy as seen prior to 2005 was reversed to a sharp decreasing trend, leading to a 19% decrease of energy intensity and 21% decrease of carbon intensity in five years. The enhanced energy efficiency, mostly due to the improvement in power and manufacturing sector, is the major driver of the decrease of carbon intensity of the economy, and development of renewable energy, despite its impressive growth rate, played minor role because of its small share in the energy mix of the country. Building energy consumption and energy-related carbon emission per unit of area continued to grow at a lesser rate, which, combined with fast growth of total building volume, lead to fast growth in total energy consumption and carbon emission in the sector. Similar trend is observed in the transportation sector whose total energy use and carbon emission continued to grow fast despite slight improvement in energy efficiency. Agricultural energy use experienced a slight decrease and forestry made major contribution to sequestering carbon in the wood stock. Policy and institutional innovation helped build a solid system of rules for low carbon development. Improving cost effectiveness of the system remains a major challenge for the next five year plan period.