土地利用规划中不确定性的识别和处理研究

Identification and Treatment of Uncertainty in Land Use Planning

首先概述不确定性概念及其产生、相关理论和研究进展,深刻地揭示由于在我国土地利用规划中长期以来忽视开展不确定性研究,导致规划指标偏离现实需求,频繁修改规划方案和违法用地现象不断发生,在此基础上,引入不确定性规划理念,重新审视不确定性在土地利用规划中的地位和作用,全面系统地阐述土地利用规划中不确定性的类型及其特性,具体表现及其识别和处理方法。研究结果表明,由于人们的知识所限,客观世界中普遍存在不确定性。不确定性孕育着规划的产生,规划是对未来不确定性的缓解和抵消。土地利用规划中长期以来忽视业已存在的不确定性,直接影响土地利用规划的科学性和可操作性。土地利用规划中最基本的不确定性是预测未来和为了适应未来而对现在进行调整的失误。对未来的无知所引发的不确定性,只能求助于不确定性科学,增强对未来的预测能力和控制能力,使不确定性的负面影响最小化。

This paper firstly introduces the concept and origin of uncertainty, related theories and research progress. It reveals that research on uncertainty was ignored in land use planning in China;as a result, the planning index deviates from the actual demand, and frequent modification of the planing phenomenon of illegal land use occur continuously. Then, the paper introduces the planning concept of uncertainty, and reexamines the role and status of uncertainty in the land use planning. It also analyzes the types, characteristics, specific performances of uncertainty in land use planning, and studies the method to recognize and treat the uncertainty. Results show that uncertainty exists in the objective world due to the limited knowledge. Uncertainty breeds planning, and planning could alleviate or offset uncertainty of the future. The ignorance of uncertainty in land use planning has impacted the rationality and maneuverability of land use planning directly. The basic uncertainty in land use planning is the lapse of prediction and adjusting current status so as to meet the future. To minimize the negative impact of uncertainty caused by ignorance on the future, only the science of uncertainty could be used to enhance prediction ability and control ability.