中国人力资本、人力资本结构与产业结构升级

Human Capital and Its Structure and Industry Structure Upgrading

人力资本及其结构作为推动产业结构转型和升级的重要因素,长期以来没能得到学术界的重视。中国改革开放以来人力资本及其结构水平迅速提升,但各地区间的人力资本及结构水平差异颇大,这可能也是导致中国各地区间经济增长和产业结构水平存在很大差异的原因。中国独特的社会经济环境,为本文直接研究人力资本在产业结构升级中的作用提供了极为理想的样本。文章在增长回归框架下,以中国各省份1978-2008年动态面板数据为基础,从国家和区域层面考察了人力资本及其结构对产业结构升级的影响。结果发现:人力资本对我国及东部地区的产业结构升级有显著促进作用;人力资本分布结构不利于产业结构升级且效应显著;人力资本内部结构与产业结构的显著性相关得到东部地区数据的支持,而在我国及中西部地区的效应不够明显,这主要是由我国投入导向的增长模式和劳动力质量水平不高所决定的。结论表明,人力资本水平提升及结构优化将会加速我国产业结构转型与升级,形成未来我国持续、稳定发展的强大动力。

Human capital and its structure greatly affect industrial structure repositioning and upgrading, which has long been underestimated. The human capital and its structure level of different regions in China vary greatly, and this is why there are big differences of economic growth and industrial structure level among different regions in China. Although human capital and its structure have upgraded rapidly since China＇s reform and opening-up. China＇s unique social and economic environment provides this study with ideal samples for studying effects of human capital and its structure on industry structure upgrading. Under the framework of growth regression, this paper examines the effects of human capital and its structure on industrial structure upgrading at nation and region levels, based on the dynamic panel data of Chinese provinces from 1978 -2008. The results demonstrate that human capital and its structure have significant effects on industrial structure upgrading in China and China＇s eastern region, structure of human capital distribution is remarkably inconducive to industry structure upgrading, and the significant correlation between internal structure of human capital and industrial structure is supported by the regression results of China＇s eastern region, but the effects are not obvious in central and western regions of China which is mainly driven by China＇s investment-oriented growth pattern and low quality of labor force. The findings reveal that enhancing human capital and optimizing its structure will accelerate China＇s industrial structure upgrading, which will become the strong driving force of China＇s stable and sustainable development in the future.