人民币国际化进程中的货币替代与货币竞争博弈分析

Game Analysis on Currency Substitution and Currency Competition in the Process of RMB Internationalization

人民币国际化的过程就是人民币参与国际货币竞争并对别国货币进行替代的过程。本文运用马克·A.迈尔斯的货币服务生产函数理论,分析了国际货币竞争中货币替代的影响因素,阐述了人民币参与国际货币竞争的相对优势。通过对人民币、美元及被替代国货币三者的博弈分析,本文认为,只要中国对被替代国的补偿与得到的铸币税收入水平相当,人民币就有可能在与美元的竞争中获胜,人民币国际化进程也就能够顺利推进。

RMB internationalization is the same process as it competes with and substitutes for other currencies. This process is now still at its earlier stage, and its international competing potential is enough not strong. Em- ploying Marc A. Miles＇production service function theory, this paper analyzes the element of the effect of curren- cy substitution and shows that RMB has some competitive advantages in world market currency competition. By studying the game between RMB, American dollars and the substituted currency, this paper concludes that RMB is possible to win in the dollars and RMB competition as long as the compensation paid to the substitute parties equals to the seigniorage revenue. The process of the internationalization of the RMB will be smooth.