我国信贷资金分布与经济增长关系的实证研究

Empirical research on relationship between credit distribution and economic growth in China

以1979—2009年宏观经济和贷款数据为基础,运用因果检验和面板数据模型深入分析我国经济增长与信贷资金分布间的关系以及八大经济区内二者的数量关系。结果发现,贷款分布与经济增长之间存在较强的相关关系,贷款增长率是经济增长率的格兰杰原因;贷款平均增长率明显高于经济增长率,贷款对经济增长的贡献作用大小依次为西南地区、长江中游地区和北部沿海地区;不同地区的信贷资金分布存在信贷配给现象。

Based on the data of macro-economy and credit from 1979 to 2009, the relationship between economic growth and credit distribution and the quantitative relationship of them in eight economic zones in China are analyzed in depth by applying causation test and panel data model. The result shows that there exists strong correlation between credit distribution and economic growth, and the growth rate of credit is the Granger cause of economic growth rate; the average growth rate of credit is higher than the growth rate of economy obviously; and the order of contribution of credit to economic growth is the Southwest region, the region of middle reach of Yangtze River, and the Northern coastal region; and there exists credit rationing of credit distribution among different regions.