基于数据场和云模型的洪水灾害风险等级评估

Flood Risk Evaluation Methods Based on Data Field and Cloud Model

根据灾害风险系统的定义以及洪水灾害的特点,用灾情损失与地形危险性的综合作用描述洪水灾害风险。针对研究单元风险的内在联系和等级概念的模糊性、随机性,提出基于数据场和云模型的洪水灾害风险等级评估方法,以期为洪水灾害风险管理提供科学依据。以苏州市和上海市(崇明县除外)为例,首先用数据场对灾情数据进行扩散;再用云模型对地形进行等级划分;最后对两者进行耦合得到该地区的洪水灾害风险等级划分。结果表明:苏州市中心偏北区域和上海市中心区域综合风险等级最高,并向四周呈递减趋势;总体上中部风险等级最高,北部次之,南部最低。

Flood risk is regarded as an interactive outcome between flood disaster losses and terrain af fection according to the definition of disaster risk systems and characteristics of flood disaster. Therefore, flood risk evaluation based on data field and cloud model was suggested with the internal relations of unit risk and the ambiguity and stochastic of risk grades concept considered. Thus, scientific basis can be pro- vided for the flood risk management. A typical example in the area of Suzhou and Shanghai except Chong- ming County was cited. Firstly, data field was applied to the data of flood disaster losses. Secondly, cloud model was applied to the terrain grade, and then, the grades of terrain danger were acquired. Finally, the ultimate grades outcome could be calculated by weighting the results above. The outcomes showed that the highest comprehensive risk grade distributed in the northern of Suzhou and centers of Shanghai and decreased around. As a whole, middle part was the highest grade, and northern followed, and the southern was the lowest.