综合利用水库调度风险评价决策技术研究

Risk Assessment and Decision-making Techniques for Multipurpose Reservoir Operation

鉴于综合利用水库调度涉及防洪、发电、供水、航运、生态等多个不可公度的目标,建立了相应的价值函数和风险评价指标体系,基于损失越大权重越大的基本理念,提出了一种通过主客观综合度量确定各指标权重的方法,结合风险的基本定义和逼近于理想解的排序方法,构建了综合利用水库调度方案风险的综合评价模型,并将其应用于丹江口水库调度的计算分析中。结果表明,该模型不仅能给出方案面临的各类风险情况,且可方便快捷地从方案集中选出最佳方案。

Multipurpose reservoir operation has related to many iacommensurability targets such as flood control, electric power generation, water supply, shipping, ecology. The corresponding value function and risk evaluation index system are established; On the basis of the idea that the large loss has the large weight, index weight method is proposed by integrating the subjective and objective factors. With the basic definition of risk and the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution, it establishes a risk evaluation model of multipurpose reservoir dispatching plan. The model is applied to Danjiangkou reservoir operation. The result shows that it can not only give risk of each dispatching plan, but also rapidly obtain the optimum scheme from plan set.