中国城市的社会阶层与基层人大选举

Social Class and Local Congressional Election in Urban China

与强调用民主价值观、政治效能感解释中国基民人大选举中人们投票行为的思路不同,作者将阶层政治论的基本逻辑用于解释投票行为。该理论的理性选择解释把阶层利益作为核心阐明变量,而阶层政治的社会心理解释则强调阶层认同的不可或缺性。运用逻辑斯蒂回归及检验模型间系数差异的自助法对CGSS2006数据的分析结果,支持了基于这两种解释的研究假设。公职新中产、市场新中产、小业主与自雇者均比工人更有可能参加投票;而这又由其收入更高、更认同中产阶层来阐明;收入越高越认同中产阶层;收入越高、越认同中产阶层就越有可能参加投票。归纳这些研究发现,并进一步整合理性选择与社会心理解释,作者认为阶层利益不但是联系阶层地位与投票行为的机制,还通过阶层认同阐明阶层地位与投票行为间的因果关联;阶层政治论是分析当前中国民众政治参与的一种有效理论工具。

Departing from literature emphasizing democratic values and political efficacy in understanding voting behavior in China's local congressional election,the authors propose to explain voting behavior from the logic of class politics.The rational choice theory of class politics argues that class position influences voting through class interest,while social psychological theory of class politics emphasizes the importance of class identification as a mediator between class position and voting.Hypotheses derived from both explanations are well supported by statistical findings from Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS) 2006,calculated using logistic regression and Bootstrap test of coefficient difference across regression models.Compared to working class,the middle classes,old or new,are more likely to vote.This is further explicated by the fact that they enjoy higher income and stronger subjective identification as middle class.The higher income also leads to stronger middle class identification,thus stronger inclination to vote.Integrating the rational choice and social psychological theories,the authors extend the explanation of class politics and conclude that class interest not only functions as the mediation linking class position and voting behavior,but also explicates the causal mechanisms between class position and voting behavior through class identification.This study demonstrates that class politics offers an appropriate logic to understand political participation in contemporary China.