中国成品油需求增长的驱动因素研究

Driving Factors for Increment of Refined Oil Demand in China

运用二阶KLEM(即资本、劳动、能源、原料)投入产出结构分解法,本文将汽油、煤油、柴油和燃料油的需求增长分解为各种驱动因素的加权平均贡献之和。研究结果表明:1997-2007年,导致全社会四种成品油需求增长10 200万吨的正向驱动因素及其贡献率,为国内最终需求因素(165.9%)、国内中间需求因素(28.3%)和出口贸易因素(94.5%),负向驱动因素为技术进步因素(-178.6%)和进口替代因素(-10.0%)。

In this paper,input-output structural decomposition analysis incorporating a two-tier KLEM（i.e.,Capital,Labor,Energy,Material） production function framework is used to decompose the refined oil demand in China into the weighted contribution from different kinds of driving factors.The refined oil includes gasoline,kerosene,diesel oil and fuel oil.The results show that the total demand of four kinds of refined oil products in China experienced an increase of 102 million tons from 1997 to 2007.The positive driving factors are final demand（average contribution,165.9%）,intermediate demand（28.3%） and export（94.5%）,the negative driving factors are technological progress（-178.6%） and import substitution（-10.0%）.