随机需求下供应链持续盈利能力分析

Analysis of Sustainable Profit-making Ability of Supply Chain under Stochastic Demanding Circumstance

为了克服传统Petri网工具在描述经济系统中信息、资源数量和资源价格关系的不足,在PCPN和FSPN的基础上,提出使用ECGSPN(Extended Colored General Stochastic Petri Net)对经济系统进行建模。将资源的权重信息引入库所,对库所的定义进行拓展。将传统的变迁扩展为引起托肯数量和权重发生变化的双重变迁和确定双重变迁是否能够激发的验证变迁,提出托肯流动组合的概念。使用ECGSPN建立供应链的数学模型,分析了单产品多原材料型的供应链中利润持续增长的问题,得出了利润持续增长条件下供应链资源调节定理。仿真结果与理论分析相符。

Aiming to solve the deficiency of describing relationship among information,number and value of resource in economic system using Petri net model available,a new class of stochastic Petri nets was introduced in which one or more places can hold not only number of tokens but also weight of tokens in virtue of PCPN（Price Colored Petri Net）and FSPN（Fluid Stochastic Petri Nets）,which can be used to modeling for economic system.A set of transitions was classified into two categories：Double-layer transitions which is denoted that number and weight of tokens changed in opposite way after transitions were fired.Justification transitions which can be used to justify double-layer transitions whether fired or not.Portfolios of different kinds of flowing tokens was proposed in ECGSPN（Extended Colored General Stochastic Petri Net）.In virtue of ECGSPN,profit-making ability of supply chain whose structure is composed of single products and multi materials was analyzed.Some measures was proposed on how to develop supply chain efficiently according to simulation recults.