东亚区域内人民币替代弹性的实证研究——基于货币服务生产函数的理论分析

An Empirical Study on the RMB Elasticity of Substitution in East Asian Region Based on the Theory of Monetary Service Production Function

随着中国—东盟自由贸易区的建立,中国和亚洲国家之间的经济整合程度越来越高,人民币在中国周边国家和地区以及东亚区域流通的范围和规模也不断扩大。文章基于货币服务函数理论构建货币反替代模型,以1994年为分界点采用固定效应变系数面板数据进行两阶段的实证分析,探讨人民币在东亚区域内的货币替代弹性。结果表明:人民币在东亚区域内的替代弹性及提供的货币服务相似性显著提高,为人民币区域化可行性提供了有力的理论支持。

With the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, the economic integration degree between China and other Asian countries is higher and higher, and the scope of RMB circulation in the neighboring regions or East Asia expands continually. Regarding 1994 as a dividing point, this paper attempts to construct a monetary anti-substitution model based on monetary service function and make an empirical analysis of the two stages via fixed effect variable coefficient panel-data, in order to explore the RMB flexibility of substitution in East Asian region. The results show that either the RMB elasticity of substitution or the monetary service similarity provided has significantly improved, which strongly supports the regional feasibility of RMB.