灰色GM(1,1)模型和Verhulst模型在青岛市海水养殖产量预测中的应用

Prediction of Seawater Aquaculture Production of Qingdao City by Using the GM(1,1) Model and the Verhulst Model

灰色预测是建立从过去引申到将来的灰色预测模型(Grey Prediction Model),从而确定所研究系统未来发展变化的趋势,为决策者提供科学依据。以青岛市1998-2007年海水养殖产量统计数据为基础,分别利用灰色GM(1,1)模型和Verhulst模型对该市传统海水养殖产量变化作预测。预测结果表明,GM(1,1)模型和Verhulst模型都显示了青岛市海水养殖产量在未来5年呈逐年递增的趋势。但通过对GM(1,1)模型和Verhulst模型的模拟精度验证和模拟预测结果的比较,发现灰色Verhulst模型预测精度较高,Verhulst模型更适合对该市未来几年的海水养殖产量进行预测。该研究结果可为青岛市合理保护和利用海水养殖资源、制定海水养殖规划提供参考依据。

The Grey Prediction Method tries to find the future trends of the system under study,thereby to provide scientific basis for decision makers.Based on the statistic data of the mariculture production from 1998 to 2007 in Qingdao city,this paper forecasted the changes of mariculture production in this region with GM（1,1） model and the Verhulst model respectively.Results showed that both the GM（1,1） model and the Verhulst model indicate that the mariculture production in Qingdao city will enjoy gradual increase in the next few years.However,by the verification of the models and the comparison of the two modeling results,the Verhulst model showed higher accuracy than the GM（1,1） model at the estimation of original data.Therefore,it is inferred that the Verhulst model is more suitable for the forecast of the changes in the coming five years of the mariculture production in the study area.This study can provide some theoretical basis for the rational use of mariculture resources and the making of marine aquaculture planning in Qingdao city.