基于有限理性的投资项目评价与决策研究

Study on Evaluation and Decision-making of Investment Project Based on Bounded Rationality

现行的项目经济评价方法的隐含假设,是古典经济学的"完全理性"。但现实中的人做不到完全理性。西蒙从心理学角度提出了"有限理性"假说。项目评价与决策的有限理性有多种表现。决策的三要素———目标、方案、决策行为,都很大程度地受到有限理性的影响,并会导致一定的决策效果偏差。有限理性对于不同类型项目的影响方式又有着重要的差异。为应对有限理性的消极影响,应对决策活动进行一些规制:首先,调整决策预期和决策行为,既然最优选择可遇不可求,能够获得满意方案即可;其次,在决策方式上,灵活地采取诸如群体决策、集中/分散决策、柔性决策等方式,来尽量消除有限理性的影响。

The implicit assumption of the current project economic evaluation is ＂entirely rational＂ in classical economics. But in reality, people can not be fully rational. Simon proposed ＂bounded rationality＂ hypothesis from a psychological point of view. The performance of bounded rationality in project evaluation and decision-making is various. The three elements of decision--making （objectives, programs, decision-making behavior）, are largely influenced by the impact of bounded rationality, which will lead to certain bias. Furthermore, the ways that bounded rationality influences different types of projects have lots of important differences. In response to the negative impact of bounded rationality, some regulations should be instituted for decision-making activities： First, adjust the decision-making expectation and the decision-making behavior,a satisfactory solution can be accepted since the optimal choice can not be found; Secondly, a flexible method should be taken, such as group decision-making, centralized / decentralized decision-making,flexible decision, etc.