中南五省流通业的发展和经济增长相关性分析——基于面板协整、因果检验方法

Research of the Relation between Economic Growth and Circulation Industry of Five Provinces of Central China——Based on Panel Co-integration,Panel Granger Causality Method

本文利用面板协整检验、格兰杰因果检验模型,对中南五省的国内生产总值、批发零售和餐饮业之间的协整、格兰杰因果关系进行检验,研究结果表明:国内生产总值和批发零售、国内生产总值和餐饮业之间存在长期稳定的协整关系;各省的餐饮业、批发零售业对GDP的增长存在显著的促进作用,并且促进程度在各省之间存在明显的差异,其中沿海两省远远高于内地三省;地理位置的空间差异对餐饮业、批发零售业对GDP的长期影响程度存在明显性影响。中南五省整体的面板协整方程估计结果同样表明,批发零售业和餐饮业的发展,促进了各省GDP的增长。

Based on Panel Co-integration and Panel Granger Causality Method, this paper studies on the relation between GDP and the wholesale and retail industry, GDP and catering industry of five provinces of Central China. The result shows that there is a long-term stable relation between GDP and the wholesale and retail industry, GDP and catering industry; the growth of wholesale and retail industry and catering？industry propel GDP growth significantly, but their influence degrees differ among the five province greatly, in which influence degrees of the two coastal provinces is much larger than that of the three inland provinces; spatial differences of geographical position influence the effect degree of the wholesale and retail industry, and catering industry on GDP significantly. The panel Co-integration formula of five provinces also shows that the growth of wholesale and retail industry and catering industry propel their GDP growth.