人民币实际有效汇率与中国中亚五国贸易收支的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Real Effective Exchange Rates of RMB and the Trade between China and Central Asia Countries

在分析中国-中亚五国的贸易收支特点和人民币实际有效汇率变化的基础上,运用协整理论,实证分析了中国-中亚五国贸易收支与人民币实际有效汇率、中国国内实际收入、中亚五国国内实际收入的关系。研究结果表明,中国-中亚五国贸易收支与人民币汇率之间不存在因果关系;中国-中亚五国贸易收支变化有利于中国与中亚五国国内收入的增长;在人民币升值的情况下,中国-中亚五国贸易收支的改善,主要是因为双方经济结构的互补性强。

Based on an analysis of the development of trade between China and Central Asia countries and the real effective exchange rates of RMB, this paper empirically analyzes the relationship among the real effective exchange rates （REER） of RMB, real GDP of China, real GDP of Central Asia countries and the trade of China with Central Asia countries according to co-integration. The study shows that there is no causal relationship between REER of RMB and trade of China with Central Asia countries; the trade of China with Central Asia countries is helpful to the growth of China＇s income as well as to that of the Central Asia countries＇ income; and under the expectation of revaluation of the RMB, trade of China with Central Asia countries is developing because of the complementary economic structure of China and Central Asia countries.