重化工产业结构、收入不确定性与居民储蓄——来自山西省的经验证据

Heavy and Chemical Industrial Structure,Income Uncertainty and Residents Savings——From the Empirical Evidence of Shanxi

借鉴预防性储蓄理论,通过对山西居民高储蓄现象的实证分析,发现重化工产业结构存在高储蓄效应。其传导机制是:在重化工产业结构下,工业的波动性大,居民收入不确定性大,导致居民预防性储蓄较大,从而表现出高储蓄率现象。本文的启示是:我国产业结构的持续重型化导致的较强的经济增长波动性,可能是居民储蓄率不断上涨的重要原因之一。其警示意义是:保持产业结构的适度均衡对于经济的长期协调发展是必要的。

Based on the precautionary savings theory,this paper,by empirical analysis of high savings of Shanxi residents,finds that the heavy industrial structure has an effect of high savings.The transmission mechanism is that there are much more industrial fluctuations in the heavy industrial structure,which lead to much more uncertainty of household income so that there are much more precautionary savings which make the residents maintain a high savings.This tells us that the continued heavy-duty of industrial structure in China,which brings increasing volatility of economic growth,may play an important role in rising of household savings rate.It means that it is necessary for economic long-term coordinated development to maintain an appropriate balance of the industrial structure.