基于倒“U”形规律的中国未来10年能源需求预测

THE PREDICTION OF CHINA'S ENERGY DEMAND OF NEXT DECADE BASED ON REVERSE U-SHAPED REGULARITY

通过对发达国家近50年来的各产业部门能源消费强度变化趋势进行分析,总结了各部门能源消费强度的倒"U"形规律。在综合分析未来10年我国经济社会发展指标的基础上,以部门能源消费强度法为基本方法,分情景对我国未来10年一次能源需求量进行了系统预测,结果显示:在参考情景下,2015年、2020年我国能源需求量将分别达到28.4亿和34.9亿t油当量,分别比2009年增长了30.8%和60.9%。未来10年,我国将处于前所未有的能源消费高增长期,调整产业结构和能源结构将是控制我国能源消费的关键。

By analyzing the energy consumption intensity trend of various sectors in the developed countries during the past 50 years, this paper sums up the reverse U-shape intensity rules of each sector. In combination with economic and social development, the reverse U-shape rule of sectoral energy consumption intensity is used to predict the China＇ s energy demand in the next decade. The results show that China＇ s energy demand will attain 2.8 billion tons in 2015, increasing by 30.8% than in 2009, 3.49 billion tons in 2020, increasing 60.9% than in 2009. The energy demand of next decade in China will enter into unprecedented high growing period. Adjusting the industrial structure and energy structure seems to be the key measures to control the energy consumption in the future.