中非关系影响因素的实证分析

An Empirical Study on the Determinants of Sino-Africa Relations

进入新世纪,中非关系成为引人注目的焦点。本文运用实证的方法,利用可获得的数据,选取模型,探讨哪些因素突出地影响了中非关系。笔者首先从国际关系主流理论的视角,提出影响中非关系因素的理论假设;其次,介绍方法与数据;最后,对模型进行分析和讨论。通过对中非关系影响因素的多元回归分析,我们可以对诸因素在影响中非高层交往的作用上进行排序。经济因素是中非关系的重心和主导因素;安全因素是第二位的影响因素;文化因素的影响作用还尚未体现。

In the new century, the Sino-Africa relations become the focus of the world. This article discusses the main determinants of Sino-Africa relations by qualitative method. The author firstly points out the assumptions of the determinants of Sino-Africa relations from the main international theories＇ view; then secondly introduces the method and data; finally, analyses the model. Through the analysis of regression model of the determinants of Sino-Arica relations, we can give the order of the effect of the determinants of Sino-Africa relations. We find that the economic factors are the dominant determinants of Sino-Arica relations, security factors are the second ones and the culture factors haven＇t show the effect yet.