资产价格、国债、货币供应量与通货膨胀间的动态联系——基于C-VECM模型的经验分析

The Dynamic Relationship between Asset Price,National Debt,Money Supply and Inflation——Based on C-VECM Model Empirical Analysis

在我国社会主义市场经济飞速发展的同时,通货膨胀现象日益凸显。为验证通货膨胀的主要影响因素,笔者结合大量国内、外相关研究,运用C-VECM模型构建并经验分析了资产价格、国债、货币供应量3个变量与通货膨胀间的动态联系。经验分析结果表明:资产价格和货币供应量对通货膨胀的影响正向且显著,而国债在短期内对通货膨胀并无显著影响。

Inflation is getting more and more prominent in China while the socialist market economy is experiencing fast development. To verify the main influence factors on inflation, the author empirically analyzes the dynamic relationship between the three variables of asset price, national debt, money supply and inflation, combining with a large number of related researches both at home and abroad as well as using the C / VECM model. Consequently, it shows that asset price and money supply exert an obvious and positive influence on inflation whereas national debt in a short term has no obvious impact on inflation.