济南近60年冬季气温变化特征

Variation Characteristics of Winter Temperature in Jinan in Recent 60 Years

[目的]研究近60年济南冬季的气温变化特征。[方法]选取1951～2010年济南地面观测站冬季月平均气温、最高和最低气温资料,采用线性趋势、5年滑动平均、距平等统计分析方法,对近60年来济南冬季平均气温、最高和最低气温变化特征进行分析,探讨其历史演变趋势及年代变化特征。[结果]近60年来济南冬季平均气温、最高、最低气温均呈波动式缓慢上升态势,升温态势明显,尤以最低气温增幅最大,说明最低气温的变化比最高气温更敏感,冬季气候变暖主要来自最低气温升高的贡献。从年代变化来看,冷冬大多出现在70年代以前,之后呈明显减少趋势;相反,在70年代之后暖冬呈增长态势,暖冬现象在2000年以后有所减缓;20世纪50～90年代冬季气温呈现台阶式增暖趋势,进入90年代冬季平均气温出现跳跃增暖态势,进入21世纪气温呈现回落趋势,但冬季气温整体还是呈上升趋势。济南人口增加,使城市化进程加快、城市热岛效应加剧,是济南气候变暖的一个重要因素。[结论]该研究为了解济南地区的长期气候变化趋势及其是否与全球气候变暖的背景相一致提供理论依据。

[Objective] The research aimed to study the variation characteristics of winter temperature in Jinan in recent 60 years.[Method] Based on winter monthly average,maximum and minimum temperatures in the ground observation station of Jinan during 1951-2010,by using the linear trend,5-year moving average and anomaly,the variation characteristics of winter average,maximum and minimum temperatures in Jinan in recent 60 years were analyzed.The historical evolution trend and decadal variation characteristics were discussed.[Result] Winter average,maximum and minimum temperatures in Jinan in recent 60 years all presented the slow fluctuation rising trend.The rising trend was obvious.Especially the increase range of minimum temperature was the maximum.It illustrated that the variation of minimum temperature was more sensitive than that of maximum temperature,and the climatic warming in winter was mainly from the contribution of minimum temperature rising.Seen from the decadal variation,cold winter mainly appeared before the 1970s.Then,it presented the obvious decrease trend.Conversely,warm winter presented the increase trend after the 1970s.Warm winter phenomenon decreased after 2000.Winter temperature presented the stepped warming trend during 1950s-1990s.Winter average temperature presented the jump warming trend after the 1990s.The temperature presented the downward trend when entering into the 21st century.But winter temperature presented the rising trend as a whole.The population growth in Jinan made that urbanization process accelerated,and urban heat island effect aggravated.It was one of important factors for climate warming in Jinan.[Conclusion]The research provided the theoretical basis for understanding the long-term variation trend of climate in Jinan area and if it was consistent with the background of global climatic warming.