两类地震风险评估模型的对比与讨论

COMPARISON OF TWO MODELS FOR SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT

回顾了传统的地震危险性评估的方法,介绍了基于离散事件仿真的地震风险评估方法,并以云南省永胜县为例,运用2类不同的方法对永胜县面临的地震风险进行了计算,得到了永胜县的地震烈度超越概率曲线.结果显示2类不同评估方法的结果有着很高的吻合度;结合保险行业地震风险管理的实际需求进一步讨论了基于离散事件的地震模型的优点及其合理性.

This paper reviewed traditional method of seismic risk analysis,then introduced a discrete event-based simulation method.Yongsheng County in Yunnan Province was chosen as a case for study.These two methods were tested by calculating seismic hazard risks in Yongsheng and a comparison was made of the results in the form of exceeding probability（EP） curves.Data showed that these two methods generated relatively consistent EP curves.The paper considered the practical needs of insurance industry,then discussed advantages and rationality of event-based simulation method.