门限自回归建模在东北地区未来地震趋势研究中的应用

Application of threshold autoregressive model to future trends of earthquake in Northeast China

叙述门限自回归模型建模的基本原理及步骤,利用东北地区年最大震级序列数据建立门限自回归模型SETAR(2,4,3),并依此对东北地区未来可能发生的最大地震进行预测。结果表明,该模型预测精度较高,其研究结论对东北地区未来地震活动趋势预测具有参考意义。

In this paper, we depict the basis theory of threshold autoregressive model and establish the self-exciting threshold autoregressive model SETAR（2,4,3） for the time series of the maximal earthquake magnitude occurring in Northeast China. The results show that the model prediction accuracy is higher. It is significant for the investigation of the earthquake activity trend prediction in Northeast China in the future.