“扭亏”公司业绩预告的“变脸”研究

Study on "Face-Changing" in Performance Forecasts by "Loss-to-Profit" Companies

本文利用单变量对比和多元Logit回归分析"扭亏"公司业绩预告"变脸"的原因。基于2002-2008年的大样本研究表明,预测难度是影响"变脸"概率的重要因素。具体表现在,当年中报或季报已实现扭亏的样本在预告中"变脸"的可能性显著低于其他样本;以微利扭亏的样本更有可能"变脸";盈利持续性比较低的样本"变脸"的可能性比较高。另外,审计师规模或公司规模比较大的样本"变脸"的可能性比较低。这些研究结果有助于投资者和监管部门深入了解上市公司的业绩预告披露行为。

From the year 2002 to 2008, about one in seven loss-to-profit companies played face-changing in their annual perfoa- mance forecasts. Empirical results indicate that earnings predictability is an important factor influencing the probability of face-changing. Companies having made profits in the interim or quarterly reports of the forecasting year are less likely to make face-changing forecasts. Companies making weak profit or losing next year are more likely to make face-changing forecasts. Moreover, the size of auditor and the size of the companies are both negatively related to the probabilities of face-changing. Our results are helpful for investors and regulatory authorities to understand the performance forecasts behavior of listed companies.