近年来港币在澳门流通情况的实证分析

Demonstrative analysis of HKD circulation in Macao in recent years

目的:研究港币在澳门的流通情况,分析其流通可能受哪些因素的影响。方法:对澳门的港币流通情况进行定性分析,并收集流通量数据和贸易量、博彩消费收入等数据,在ADF检验和Granger检验后,建立多元回归模型。结论:港澳之间的贸易量、澳门从香港游客身上获得的博彩和旅游收入这两个因素将对港币的流通量产生正面影响,而且这种影响还会滞后一期;港币对人民币的汇率、港币对澳门币的利率差这两个因素对港币的流通量产生负面影响。而长期来看,港币在澳门的流通情况可能还取决于直接投资以及澳门居民对香港和内地的信心。

OBJECTIVE：To discuss the current status of circulation of HKD in Macao,and to analysis the influence factors METHOD： Data has been collected,including HKD circulation,trade between Hongkong and Macao,gambling and lottery income from Hongkong,exchange and interest of HKD and MOP.The paper has established a multivariate regression model after Augmented Dickey-Fuller test and first order differential process.Granger test is also used to descript causal relations between data.RESULT and CONCLUSION： Two factors——trade between Hongkong and Macao,gambling and lottery income from Hongkong—have positive effects on HKD circulation in Macao.And two factors—exchange,interest spreads of HKD and MOP—have negative effects on HKD circulation in Macao.